JAKARTA - Some thousands of foreign policy aficionados filled the Kasablanka Hall, on the third floor of one of South Jakarta’s busiest malls Kota Kasablanka on November 29.
Lots of them were university students from all corners of the country while a mix of ambassadors, politicians, ministers, journalists, and others filled out the crowd.
The annual Conference on Indonesian Foreign Policy (CIFP) has reached its 9th edition, but the mood in the room is anything *but *ceremonial. It tapped into the anxiety of the “next world order.” Experts sketched a picture of a global order no longer anchored by a single power, nor governed by rules everyone trusts, and talked about a lot of ‘what if’s’ about ‘what’s next’s.’
This year’s theme was “Preparing for The Next World Order: Indonesia, the Global South and the West.”
“The unipolar moment is gone forever,” said founder Dino Patti Djalal during his opening speech, arguing that the next phase will be shaped by dynamic alignments and assertive middle-power coalitions, like ASEAN.
Middle powers on the rise
Standing before a hall packed with mostly Indonesian youths, the former Indonesian Ambassador for the United States said that there are at least four forces driving the upheaval of middle power countries.
“The world has changed by default,” he said, noting how UN membership has quadrupled since 1945 and how middle-income countries—once almost nonexistent—now number more than a hundred. BRICS, he added, now holds “a larger combined GDP in PPP terms than the G7,” adding that it’s a shift that is “reshaping the global center of gravity.”
At the same time, faith in the rules-based order has collapsed as big powers bend or abandon international law whenever it suits them, from the UN Security Council to agencies like WHO and UNHCR.
“(United Nations’) P5 members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have promoted only their own interests and abused their veto power,” Djalal added.
The world, as Djalal sees it, is moving in the wrong direction.
“We’re losing our moral compass,” he warned. Trade, technology, energy, even migration are now being “weaponized.” Nationalism is rising, military spending is at its highest level since the Cold War, and climate targets are slipping. “Only 17 percent of the SDGs are on track,” he said, adding that a fraction of global defense budgets could erase extreme poverty.
“It’s no surprise many leaders think the current order no longer works.”
The end of unipolar world
The unipolar world is failing as we know it, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono echoes Djalil’s statement.
Yudhoyono, who serves as Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development, said in his keynote speech that the UN was his main example.
It’s an organization he said “can no longer enforce its own rules,” especially when powerful countries decide to bend them. He tied that crisis of credibility to the chaos brought on by rapid technological change, from AI to digital systems that are advancing far faster than the regulations meant to guide them.
At home, Indonesia's role in the Global South should not be underestimated, but it’s one that its people should run toward the ball instead of waiting for the pass.
The country’s demographic advantage, he reminded the crowd, is already on a countdown, with the country’s productive population expected to peak around 2040. That reality will shape everything from jobs to economic resilience.
And as the world’s supply chains are starting to get shaky, humanitarian rules are being ignored, and countries are cooperating less, he said Indonesia will feel the impact. These global shocks will hit trade, influence investment decisions, and affect the demand and safety of Indonesian workers overseas.
What it means is that when trade slows down, it’s harder for businesses to export or import goods. Then, investors could also hesitate to start new projects or expand existing ones because of uncertainty. Indonesian workers abroad might face tougher conditions too as jobs could be scarce to find, pay could drop, and in unstable regions, their safety and legal protections might be at risk.
“Indonesia has plenty of soft-power assets: a rich culture, a tradition of tolerance, and deep diversity. We can serve as a bridge between West and East, between the Islamic world and the West, and between the Global North and South,” Yudhoyono said further.
What does the next world order look like?
It’s hard to pinpoint the future, but Djalal sketched out several traits that, in his view, are already taking shape.
The West’s dominance is ending and rising powers, especially from the Global South, are gaining weight. Then, there’s a rise of flexible, issue-based alignment among countries rather than formal alliances, although there’s no denying that the world is becoming a hotter planet with all its geopolitical and economic consequences.
Many “what ifs” could be questioned, and these shifts might already be changing migration and the lives of millions. Countries may tighten or loosen visas—like the new free visa exchange between Indonesia and South Africa—and rethink rules for migrant workers, or even push governments to compete for workers from abroad.
And for those workers who send parts of their paychecks back to their home countries, currency swings and trade disruptions might hit remittances. Middle powers like Japan and South Korea, for example, now treat migration as key to keeping their economies up and running.
“The old rules do not apply anymore, but the new ones cannot be retained. We must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead,” Djalal said, quoting Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.
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