KUALA LUMPUR - Thailand is targeting 39 million foreign arrivals in 2026, including 9 million from China, despite challenges from border clashes with Cambodia, severe flooding in the south, and a strong baht affecting tourism and exports.

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta) is preparing the Thailand Tourism and MICE Next 2026 trade show on January 23, expecting 1,200 to 1,500 participants from Thailand and overseas, and projecting at least 3 billion baht in revenue.

Atta President, Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn said the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau, and other partners contributed half of the 10 million baht budget to host the event.

Out of 300 overseas buyers attending, most are from Asia, including 100 from China, with TAT organising familiarisation trips to showcase new tourism products.

Between 250 and 300 Thai tourism operators from major and secondary destinations will join, including participants from provinces affected by the Thailand - Cambodia border dispute and southern floods.

Thanapol said tourism markets, including China, are recovering during this high season following the state visit of Their Majesties the King and Queen and increased flight capacity from new charter services.

He added that the government is unlikely to let the border conflict with Cambodia drag on due to its impact on the economy and tourism.

"This trade show should be a springboard to lift the Chinese market to 20,000 daily arrivals during Chinese New Year in early 2026," he said.

Atta plans to hold several roadshows in China and visit other key markets next year.

Thailand is also set to host large events in 2026, including the IMF- World Bank annual meeting, Gastech 2026, Global Wellness Summit 2026, and Amway China meetings, which are expected to boost business travel by 20%.

"39 million arrivals is not a far-fetched target for 2026, if the tourism sector works proactively," said Thanapol.

Once a new government is formed, Atta hopes for closer collaboration with the private sector to strengthen key tourism markets.

Thanapol suggested new promotional strategies, such as bigger discounts, waiving entrance fees to nature parks and royal palaces, or subsidising one room night for a 4 to 5 night package.

Honorary Secretary-General of Atta, Adith Chairattananon said the Bank of Thailand and the government should address the strong baht, which is affecting tourism and exports and reducing competitiveness against other Asian destinations.

Tourism has faced challenges in 2025, with a 7% decline in arrivals compared to 2024, partly due to renewed border clashes with Cambodia and advisories from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Denmark.

A British tourist, who was trapped in Trat province due to a curfew during the fighting, described the situation.

“The police said the road was closed and I had to find accommodation overnight. I heard explosions all through the night, but I got out first thing in the morning,” he said.

By dawn, he reached the island of Koh Kood, enjoying the calm beaches and clear waters that contrast with the border turmoil.

Thai authorities have lifted the nighttime curfew in affected areas, aiming to contain both the fighting and its impact on tourism.

Tourism officials report that major destinations have not seen cancellations, with foreigners continuing to travel as usual.

However, industry insiders note headwinds, including tariffs from the US, cyber-scam concerns deterring Chinese and Korean visitors, and the strong baht reducing Thailand’s appeal as a budget destination.

The tourism slowdown has affected the economy, with the Bank of Thailand projecting growth of 2.2% this year and 1.5% in 2026, among the weakest in decades.

Meanwhile, neighbouring Malaysia and Vietnam have seen strong tourist growth, with Malaysia targeting 47 million visitors in 2026 and Vietnam welcoming a record 20 million this year.

On Koh Samui, Tourism Operator, Warakorn Suksom expressed cautious optimism for 2026: and expects stable bookings.

“We expected stable bookings mostly from our long-time partners,  hotels, tour agents and old customers who keep coming back,” Warakorn said.

He also plans a New Year ritual offering to Mae Ya Nang, the sea goddess believed to protect sailors.

Thailand’s top visitor markets are shifting, with Malaysian tourists surpassing Chinese arrivals this year, followed by South Koreans, Indians, and Japanese.

Co-founder of travel company, The Roots Routes, Stephane Scheere, said the foreign run tourism businesses, some operating in legal grey zones, siphon off profits from Thailand’s natural assets, with some Chinese tourists travelling through zero-dollar tours, limiting the economic impact locally.

“Even if the number of visitors is lower, the overall spending remains about the same. So it isn’t necessarily a bad thing,” he added.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand is promoting cultural festivals, sporting events, and ecotourism across lesser-known provinces to diversify revenue and reduce dependency on overcrowded destinations.