KUALA LUMPUR - Vietnam’s population is projected to peak around 2059 before growth slows or stabilizes, according to long-term demographic projections released on Tuesday.
The findings were presented at a workshop organised by the General Statistics Office and the UN Population Fund, based on recent census data and surveys covering 53 ethnic groups.
Under a medium-fertility scenario, the population is expected to continue growing for several decades before reaching its peak mid-century and then transitioning to slower growth or stability.
From 2024 to 2074, the country’s population could reach about 114 million, with outcomes varying depending on fertility trends.
The so-called ‘golden population structure’ where the working-age population greatly outnumbers dependents, is expected to end by 2036, ushering in rapid population ageing.
This shift will result from a shrinking younger and middle-aged population and a fast-growing elderly population, putting pressure on labour supply, healthcare, and social protection systems.
Gender imbalance at birth is expected to persist well into the middle of the century, continuing to affect the population’s overall structure.
Urbanisation is projected to slow as the urban population nears 50% of the total.
Internal migration remains an important factor in population distribution, reflecting differences in economic opportunities and labour demand between regions.
Recent data shows internal migration fell from about 6.4 million people in 2014 - 2019 to roughly 3.8 million between 2019 and 2024.
More than 70% of moves are city to city, suggesting that most migrants are relocating to other urban areas rather than returning to rural areas.
Short distance moves are becoming more common, reflecting a growing preference for residential stability and lower mobility costs.
While total migration has declined, migration among ethnic groups has only slightly decreased, increasing their share of all migrants.
Analysts say this points to early benefits from job creation and development policies in rural, peri-urban, and satellite cities.
A separate report found that illiteracy rates among very small ethnic groups are more than twice as high as among larger communities.
Early marriage, low education, and poor sanitation were identified as overlapping factors contributing to multidimensional poverty among ethnic groups.
Officials highlighted education, particularly secondary schooling for girls, as key to reducing intergenerational poverty and limiting child marriage, calling for flexible policies tailored to each ethnic community.
Overall, the findings show a narrowing window for Vietnam to benefit from its remaining demographic dividend while emphasising the need for long-term planning to address ageing, migration, and gender imbalance.
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