KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia’s Visit Malaysia 2026 (VM2026) campaign may face challenges due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to TA Research.

The research house said the campaign’s target of 47 million international arrivals and RM329 billion in tourism receipts could be affected.

“The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East comes at a pivotal moment for Malaysia, coinciding with the launch of Visit Malaysia 2026.

“The campaign now faces mounting headwinds that could challenge its momentum,” it said in a note, as reported by Free Malaysia Today.

TA Research said VM2026 aims to position tourism as an economic stabiliser.

However, risks such as geopolitical instability, weaker global sentiment and inflationary pressures may constrain growth.

The impact is expected to be more pronounced among long-haul and high-value markets.

Middle Eastern visitors account for about 0.4 per cent of total arrivals, representing around 162,000 visitors.

However, disruptions in regional airspace and transit hubs could indirectly affect arrivals from Europe and other long-haul markets.

“The potential shortfall of two to three million visitors is therefore not due to the Middle East alone, but rather from indirect spillovers.

“Middle Eastern hubs serve as key transit points for European and other long-haul travellers, and disruptions or higher travel costs reduce arrivals from these high-spending markets,” it said.

TA Research cited historical precedent to illustrate potential impacts.

During the Iraq War in 2003, Malaysia’s tourist arrivals fell to about 10.5 million from 13.2 million in 2002.

The decline, compounded by the SARS outbreak, resulted in a 17.4 per cent drop in tourism receipts.

The research house said the implications extend across Malaysia and the wider ASEAN region.

These include reduced seat capacity, longer rerouting times and rising airfares.

“Furthermore, travel advisories against non-essential travel to seven Middle Eastern countries – Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates – have heightened uncertainty,” it added.

Despite the risks, TA Research said regional demand is expected to provide some stability.

Strong travel flows from Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, China and India are likely to support the sector.

Domestic tourism is also expected to underpin overall performance.

Since the start of the US-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28, more than 37,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled.

This has removed about 4.4 million seats from the market.

Hundreds of thousands of passengers have also been stranded across the Gulf.

The hardest-hit transit hubs include Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

Together, they handle around 90,000 transit passengers daily and connect Europe with Asia, Australia and Africa.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has further intensified the situation.

Jet fuel prices have surged, leading to higher airfares, particularly for international travel.