KUALA LUMPUR – Europe’s ageing population and shrinking workforce could increase reliance on migration, as the European Union faces growing labour shortages in the coming decades.

A report published on July 14 by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre projected that the population of the 27-member bloc will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before declining to 398.8 million by 2100, as reported by AFP.

The report said demographic change would create significant challenges, including labour shortages, pressure on public budgets, and increased demand for care services.

Migration could help offset some of the effects of Europe’s ageing population and workforce contraction, although it would not fully resolve the challenges posed by demographic change, the report said.

“Migration is a necessity,” EU Commissioner Dubravka Suica told reporters.

The EU’s fertility rate fell to 1.34 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability without migration.

As Europe confronts a shrinking working-age population, Asia remains one of the world’s major regions for international labour migration.

In the Asia-Pacific Migration Report 2024: Assessing Implementation of the Global Compact for Migration, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has identified Asia-Pacific as a major region for labour migration, with millions of workers from countries including the Philippines, India and Indonesia moving across borders for employment opportunities.

It said labour migration in the region is shaped by factors including differences in economic opportunities, demographic changes and demand for workers.

The World Bank, in its World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, said demographic differences between countries are expected to make migration increasingly necessary in the coming decades.

The report said ageing societies and declining working-age populations could create labour shortages, while countries with growing populations face pressure to create more jobs, contributing to changing migration patterns.

It added that whether countries allow migration to help address gaps between labour supply and demand will influence their economic and social outcomes.

However, the EU report cautioned that migration alone cannot fully address the bloc’s demographic challenges, saying Europe must also improve productivity and reduce unemployment.

Around 20 per cent of working-age Europeans are currently outside the labour force, while about eight million young people are neither in employment, education nor training.

The report noted that while Europe’s population is expected to decline, global population growth is increasingly concentrated in regions including South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East.