KUALA LUMPUR - Thailand’s plan to fully recover its tourism sector after the pandemic is facing challenges as the conflict in the Middle East affects flight routes and reduces traveller confidence, the Nation reported.

After international arrivals fell by 7% to 32.9 million last year, industry leaders warn that a long conflict could cause losses of up to 29 billion baht (USD1.14 billion).

The growing tensions between the US, Israel and Iran have forced airlines to change flight paths to avoid affected airspace.

According to Nikkei Asia, these longer routes have increased operating costs, especially fuel expenses.

President of the Thai Hotels Association, Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun said that longer flights are raising travel costs for passengers.

Thai Airways recently increased ticket prices by 10 to 15%, a move also seen among other international airlines.

“When the overall cost of travel rises, tourists may simply decide not to come to Thailand,” Thienprasit warned.

The impact is already visible, as international arrivals dropped by 8.9% in the first week of March 2026 compared to the previous week.

Arrivals from Europe and the Middle East, many of whom travel through hubs such as Dubai International Airport, fell by 18% during the same period.

European visitors are especially important for destinations like Phuket, which is seen as at risk of a slowdown.

Data from Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports showed the country received more than 7.4 million visitors from Jan 1 to March 11, 2026, which is still 4.4% lower than the same period last year.

The effects are also being felt in the business sector, with retail company Central Retail expecting a 1% drop in profits this year due to higher costs and fewer tourists.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimated that Thailand could lose between nine billion and 20 billion baht if the conflict lasts one to three months, and up to 29 billion baht if it continues for more than six months.

Since tourism makes up about 20% of Thailand’s economy, the Ministry of Tourism is adjusting its plans to reduce the impact.

Ministry Permanent Secretary, Natreeya Taweewong said daily arrivals remain above 100,000, but efforts are now focused on markets less affected by Middle Eastern airspace issues, including China, India and Malaysia.

In 2025, Malaysia was Thailand’s largest source of visitors with 4.5 million arrivals, followed by China with 4.4 million.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand is increasing promotions in these countries, especially targeting young travellers and families.

The government is also launching a new ‘Mekong Riverside’ project in seven provinces to promote local culture and sustainable tourism.

Despite global challenges, Bangkok was recently named the world’s most visited city in 2025, offering hope for the sector.

“The cumulative total of over 7.4 million tourists confirms that travellers continue to have confidence in Thailand,” Natreeya said, adding that the country remains a leading global travel destination.