JAKARTA - ASEAN's five major economies are heading in different directions next year, according to fresh analysis from Mastercard's Economics Institute. While Indonesia and the Philippines keep their economy running at above 5% growth, their neighbors are pumping the brakes.

Indonesia should hit 5% growth in 2026, helped along by easier money from the central bank and government spending. The Philippines looks even stronger at 5.6%, with Filipinos still borrowing heavily to fund purchases. Malaysia, though, is coming down from its post-pandemic high to a more normal 4.2% pace. 

Singapore and Thailand are weaker. Singapore’s economy is forecast to grow just 2.2%, while Thailand is at the bottom with 1.8%. Economists are more worried about Thailand because wages are not rising as fast as prices. A strong baht, pushed higher by gold prices, doesn't help Thai exporters either.

Travel keeps the whole region afloat. Singaporeans lead the pack in overseas spending, dropping $2.7 billion more in early 2025 than they did six years ago. Indonesians and Filipinos followed with 40% and 28% jumps in their travel budgets.

The split matters because these five economies account for roughly 85-90% of Southeast Asia's total output, and where they go shapes everything from supply chain decisions to labor migration patterns across the region.

Elsewhere in the study, Mastercard predicts China will slow to 4.5% growth as its economy shifts from quantity to quality. Chinese shoppers are spending less on bulk purchases and more on what the report calls "new consumption" - beauty products, wellness services, and collectibles that offer emotional satisfaction rather than just utility.

India heads the opposite direction at 6.6% growth, still benefiting from its young population and rapid digital adoption. Japan inches forward at just 1% growth, but the report sees something more interesting happening beneath the surface.