JAKARTA - Indonesia's retail sales are estimated to have grown 4.4 percent year-on-year in December 2025, driven by Christmas and New Year shopping, Bank Indonesia’s retail survey showed January 12.

The central bank's Real Sales Index for December is projected to accelerate monthly growth to 4.0 percent from November's 1.5 percent. Spare parts and accessories, food and beverages, cultural and recreational goods, and motor vehicle fuel are expected to lead the gains. Gadgets and electronics also showed strong monthly performance.

The prediction follows strong November results, when retail sales grew 6.3 percent annually. Bank Indonesia attributed the surge to increased consumer demand during the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

December's retail boost came partly from Harbolnas, Indonesia's National Online Shopping Day. The weeklong event held December 10-16 generated Rp36.4 trillion ($2.1 billion), surpassing the government's target of Rp33-34 trillion and marking a 17 percent increase from 2024's Rp31.2 trillion.

Trade Minister Budi Santoso said more than 1,300 businesses participated in the event, with local products accounting for 45.6 percent of sales at Rp16.6 trillion. Top-selling local categories were fashion and sportswear, personal care, and food and beverages 

The year-end shopping period combines Christmas, New Year and school holidays to create a major sales peak second only to Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Singaporean market researcher TGM Research reported over 60 percent of Indonesians buy food, beverages and apparel as gifts during this period, with many starting purchases in early December.

Bank Indonesia projects inflation pressure will increase through February 2026 ahead of Ramadan, with the General Price Expectation Index rising to 168.6 from 163.2, before easing in May.