KUALA LUMPUR – Japan is expected to welcome 41.4 million inbound visitors in 2026, but the figure represents a 3% decline from last year’s estimate, according to travel agency JTB.

Visitor numbers from China, which account for around 20% of total inbound tourism, are expected to decline amid weak outbound demand and policy-related factors.

After comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Beijing urged citizens in November 2025 to refrain from traveling to Japan, prompting flight cuts and suspensions and slowing year on year growth in Chinese visitors to 3%.

Labor shortages in the airline and hotel sectors are also constraining Japan’s capacity to accommodate further growth in inbound tourism.

The 2026 forecast comes after a record-setting year in 2025. In contrast, inbound visitors to Japan in 2025 rose 16% from 2024 to 42.6 million, marking strong growth according to JTB estimates.

Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) data also show that arrivals from January through November 2025 exceeded 39.06 million, surpassing the previous annual record of about 36.87 million set in 2024.

Although inbound visitor numbers are projected to decline, the economic impact is expected to remain positive, with total spending forecast to rise year on year, driven by higher travel costs and increased on-site consumption.

At the same time, Japan’s inbound tourism market is showing signs of gradual diversification. 

Reliance on the Chinese market is easing, according to industry data and policy discussions. 

At the same time, interest is growing from a broader range of source markets beyond East Asia, including parts of Southeast Asia and the Middle East, driven by economic growth and rising outbound travel.

Airline capacity is also being adjusted accordingly. As flights on China routes are reduced, carriers are reallocating resources toward other international routes, including services linking Japan with Southeast Asia and Middle Eastern hub airports such as Dubai and Doha. 

These changes may help Japan attract a wider mix of inbound travelers, including transit passengers from Europe, partially offsetting weaker demand from China.

Across regions, visitors from Western countries tend to stay longer, resulting in higher per-capita spending.

The forecast underscores a shift from volume driven growth to a higher spending, value oriented inbound tourism model.

Repeat visits are expected to remain concentrated in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, while efforts are underway to encourage greater travel to regional areas.

The outlook suggests that inbound demand may be leveling off, raising questions about how Japan will reach the government’s target of 60 million visitors by 2030.